Georgios Chortareas: Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Monetary Policy (Mis)perceptions
| Termin |
Mittwoch, 14. Juni 2023, 18.00 - 19.30 Uhr |
|---|---|
| Veranstaltungsart | Workshop/Seminar |
| Reihe | Forschungsseminar "Economic History, Growth & Development" |
| Einrichtung | Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Bereich |
| Veranstalter | Lehrstuhl Prof. Dr. Lars Börner |
| Veranstaltungsort | Seminarraum I |
| Straße | Große Steinstraße 73 |
| PLZ/Ort | 06108 Halle (Saale) |
Beschreibung
Vortrag von Prof. Dr. Georgios Chortareas vom King's College London
Abstract:
This paper considers central banker’s (mis)perceptions about the natural equilibrium real interest rate and their implications for the setting of monetary policy in the United States. We obtain the implied equilibrium real interest rate by estimating central bank reaction functions. We use a time-varying random-coefficient framework, which incorporates a novel kernel-weighted continuously updating time-varying generalised methods of moments approach. To obtain a perception-free estimate of the natural rate of interest, which constitutes our benchmark, we use a semi-structural framework. The findings document the Federal Reserve’s historical conduct of monetary policy and explain key periods of macroeconomic instability in which policymakers either underestimate or overestimate the natural rate of interest.